Agadez: The bus station in Agadez is bustling with activity as the Nigerien desert city emerges as a crucial regional hub. Situated on the northern edge of the Sahel, Agadez has historically been a convergence point for trade routes between West Africa and the Maghreb for centuries. Over time, the boundaries between legal trade and smuggling have blurred, particularly with the illicit movement of people from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, which has become an unofficial mainstay of the city’s economy.

According to Deutsche Welle, the situation took a significant turn following a military coup in 2023 when the new rulers abolished existing laws, changing the landscape of smuggling activities in the region. Ulf Laessing, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's regional program in neighboring Mali, suggests that Russian influence might have played a role in this decision. The abolition of the law coincided with the signing of a new military agreement with Russia, and the smuggling trade in Agadez quickly resumed and is reportedly expanding.

Niger's neighbors, Burkina Faso and Mali, have experienced similar shifts, with new military governments aligning more closely with Moscow than Brussels. This alignment has coincided with a rapid expansion of the regional smuggling industry, particularly in the drug sector. Reports from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) indicate that drug seizures in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger increased dramatically from about 13 kilograms per year between 2015 and 2020 to roughly 1.5 tonnes by 2022.

The Sahel's strategic location has made it a focal point for drug smugglers, connecting Latin American producers with European consumers. Amado Philip de Andres from the UNODC in Dakar highlights that smuggling activities have reached new levels of sophistication, with technologies like underwater vehicles being employed to transport large quantities of drugs. While Latin American groups continue to dominate the cocaine trade, West and Central African networks are increasingly handling the middle-level operations.

This surge in smuggling activities is compounded by corruption among local officials and security forces. As European influence wanes, anti-corruption programs have been neglected, further empowering criminal groups. These groups are leveraging their growing financial power to gain influence over border officials and local politicians.

Russian promises to restore order in the Sahel through military strength have not met expectations. Despite the presence of Russian mercenaries, the security situation remains volatile. Ulf Laessing points out that the Russian mercenary group Africa Corps has exacerbated conflicts in the region, rather than pacifying them. With France having previously deployed over 5,000 soldiers without fully stabilizing the area, the current Russian presence of approximately 1,500 troops in Mali and 400 in Burkina Faso and Niger falls short of achieving the desired stability.